Semianalysis identifies ASML as the biggest threat to Besi’s largest growth market, hybrid bonding. Most strikingly, the Duiven-based company felt compelled to respond to the analysis with a statement about its alleged competitor. Bad news for Besi. That’s the conclusion Semianalysis reached after examining ASML’s activities in hybrid bonding. The market research firm reviewed patent filings, the lithography giant’s technology roadmap and public statements, concluding that the Veldhoven-based company is pulling the rug out from under Besi’s hybrid-bonding ambitions. It’s no secret that ASML is developing hybrid bonding technology. This first became abundantly clear during its 2024 Investor Day. At the time, however, the company referred to the technology in very general terms as “wafer bonding,” without going into specifics. It made no distinction between placing individual dies on wafers (die-to-wafer, D2W) and bonding entire wafers together (wafer-to-wafer, W2W). But Veldhoven’s keen interest in the technology was unmistakable. “One thing we see happening is more and more 3D integration,” Christophe Fouquet said in November 2024. “If we look at 3D NAND, if we look at DRAM, if we look at logic – wafer bonding will be everywhere.” Nor is it any longer a secret that ASML is actually developing hybrid-bonding hardware. What’s far less clear, however, is where the company’s priorities lie. That makes the certainty with which Semianalysis presents its findings rather striking, especially since it identifies ASML as the biggest threat to hybrid-bonding pioneer Besi. It barely discusses the roughly fifteen other players currently developing hybrid-bonding equipment. The analysis even appears to have affected Besi’s share price, which took a substantial hit following publication – although, given the current market hysteria, it’s not always possible to establish cause and effect. Besi’s Datacon 8800 Chameo Ultra Plus AC hybrid bonding platform. Credit: Besi Threats Besi is a pioneer in die-to-wafer hybrid bonding. “Everyone else is still trying to get a first tool qualified,” according to Semianalysis. Curiously, there’s no mention of ASMPT. The Hong Kong-based back-end equipment manufacturer has its Lithobolt D2W systems ready for mass production, working with EVG on die cleaning and plasma activation. Semianalysis sees the main threat to Besi coming from the market leader in chip lithography, “because ASML is building a die-to-wafer hybrid bonding tool. The company filed 27 bonding patent families between December 2022 and November 2024, most of them D2W, and the true count is likely higher because filings made after November 2024 are not yet public.” Semianalysis identifies a second development that’s worsening Besi’s prospects: delays in the adoption of hybrid bonding for stacking high-bandwidth memory (HBM). These memories, tailored to AI systems, potentially represent the largest market for hybrid bonding. But the technology isn’t ready yet: It’s too expensive, too slow and suffers from insufficient yields. Semianalysis sees this delay as a major threat to Besi. “Korean challengers are catching up, in addition to an HBM adoption that we expect to slip to 2029 or beyond.” In short, Besi’s lead is evaporating. Game-changing Perhaps even more remarkable was Besi’s decision to respond to the negative coverage. In the press release accompanying its latest quarterly results, the company challenged Semianalysis’ assessment. “We don’t view ASML as a hybrid-bonding competitor contrary to recent analyst reports. To the best of our knowledge, ASML is interested in a roadmap for 3D transistor stacking inside the chip over the next decade and not in competing with Besi in the area of die-to-wafer hybrid bonding.” To the best of our knowledge, ASML is interested in anything that can consolidate or strengthen its position and keep its growth and profitability on track. That means, first, safeguarding its strong position in lithography and, se