This is the eighth part in a series on how AI is crossing out of software and into the physical world. This time, Jan Bosch looks at the layer that does the verifying and what it actually costs to install. In 2016, a mechanical lidar cost something like 80,000-100,000 dollars; a 64-beam Velodyne was around 80,000 dollars. Today, solid-state units are being targeted below 200 dollars, with a stated long-term goal of 100 dollars and several competitors aiming under 500 dollars. That’s a reduction of two to three orders of magnitude in a decade. The same curve, less dramatically, has run through cameras, MEMS accelerometers, gas sensors and thermal imagers. If your plan requires putting an eye or an ear somewhere, the sensor is no longer the reason you can’t. So, the comfortable story is that the world is becoming machine-readable by default. Instruments proliferate, data exhaust accumulates and AI arrives later to mine it. I want to argue that this story has the right economics and the wrong object. The sensors are, in most industrial settings, already there. But they’re simply the wrong sensors – and not because anyone made a mistake. Here’s the thing I think is genuinely underappreciated. Almost all installed industrial sensing exists to close a control loop. A thermocouple holding a setpoint, a pressure transducer tripping an interlock, an encoder feeding a servo. For that job, what you need is the present value, repeatability and low latency. Notice what you don’t need. You don’t need absolute accuracy, because the loop only cares that the reading is consistent, not that it’s true. You don’t need retained history, because the loop only cares about now, so the old values get overwritten or thrown away. You don’t need timestamps that align with other subsystems, because each loop runs independently. And you emphatically don’t need context – what product was running, which operator was on shift, which batch of feedstock went in – because the controller doesn’t care and nobody was going to read it. Every one of those four is mandatory for learning, and none of them is mandatory for control. Which means decades of capital spent on instrumentation produced plants that are thoroughly instrumented and barely observable. Those are different properties, and the industry has been conflating them for about ten years. The downstream numbers are what you’d predict. Industry analyses put the share of industrial asset data that goes unused at something like 95 percent , and the reasons given aren’t about volume or compute; they’re missing metadata, inconsistent labelling, no standardization, time-series locked in legacy systems and engineers’ spreadsheets – data described, memorably, as “some of the most ungoverned and ungovernable.” Making it usable is reported to take months or years of human effort per site. This also deepens something from the fifth part in this series. I argued there that a model trained in one plant doesn’t transfer to the next because the cameras hang differently and the tags are named differently. That’s true, and it’s the shallow version. The deeper version is that the measurements were never constructed to be comparable in the first place, because comparability wasn’t a requirement of the job they were installed to do. Which brings me to the cost structure, and to the sentence I’d put on the wall of every industrial AI program: The capex collapsed and the opex didn’t. A sensor isn’t an asset; it’s a maintenance obligation with a price tag attached. It drifts. It fouls. It needs recalibration on a schedule somebody has to own. Nodes die quietly and are discovered months later. Install ten thousand cheap sensors and you haven’t acquired ten thousand data sources; you’ve acquired a permanent staffing commitment, and that commitment is the line item that kills more business cases than any model ever has. Drift deserves particular attention, because it fails in the worst possible way. An uncalibrated sensor doesn’t sto
Machines that think: sensing the world
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This is the eighth part in a series on how AI is crossing out of software and into the physical world. This time, Jan Bosch looks at the layer that does the verifying and what it actually costs to install.
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https://bits-chips.com/article/machines-that-think-sensing-the-world/
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